Insights / AI and Business

AI Coding Is Standardizing the Software Stack, and I Think It Pushes Servers to ARM

By James Williamson, Managing Principal, Blue Brick Partners ·

AI coding tools keep landing on the same stack: Postgres, React or Next.js, Node, and TypeScript. That stack leans on fast single cores, and ARM gives you more of that per dollar than x86. I think the next big server refresh swings heavily toward ARM, gaining 7 to 10 percent of the market a year until it plateaus around 50 percent.

AI is picking the stack

When people vibecode, the prompt is usually about the outcome and less about the architecture that gets you there. There's nothing wrong with the architecture the AI chooses, but it leads to fewer projects in other fantastic languages like Go and Rust, because those aren't the first ones the models target.

GitHub's Octoverse 2025 report found that TypeScript became the most used language on GitHub in August 2025, with more than 2.6 million developers contributing each month, up 66.6 percent from a year earlier. GitHub credits part of that rise to AI coding tools, which tend to work better with typed languages, and points out that most popular web frameworks now start new projects in TypeScript by default, though it stops short of saying AI caused the shift.

That stack runs on single-core speed

For hardware, what matters is single-core performance specifically. I saw it in large SQL operations on one of our own x86 builds.

Node.js is designed to serve many users from a small number of threads, and PostgreSQL gives each connection its own single process, so with this stack one large request generally runs on one core at a time.

Why I think ARM wins the next refresh

ARM has higher performance per dollar in single-core speed, and especially at high core counts. I use a Mac for development, and the Macs are incredible at performance per watt. On the server side, you can load an 80-core Ampere CPU all the way up with nearly no performance hit, provided the hardware has adequate cooling.

According to Ampere's documentation, they offer up to 128 cores at an all-core speed of up to 3.0 GHz. Amazon makes a similar case for its own ARM chips, Graviton, which it says give the best price performance on its cloud.

Published estimates of ARM's share of server CPUs

SourcePeriodARM share
TrendForce2025Just over 10%
Mercury ResearchQ4 202512.5% of shipments (revised)
Mercury ResearchQ1 202613.2% of shipments
TrendForce2026 forecastAbove 20%
TrendForce2027 forecastAbout 30%
Sources: Mercury Research figures as reported by The Register, June 4, 2026. TrendForce figures from its October 22, 2026 release. The two firms measure the market differently, so their numbers are not directly comparable.

I think the next big server refresh cycle will swing heavily toward ARM. I expect ARM to gain 7 to 10 percent of the market a year and plateau around 50 percent. TrendForce is already forecasting a jump from just over 10 percent in 2025 to about 30 percent in 2027, which is at the top of that range.

Where x86 still makes sense

There are good reasons to stay on x86, and I agree with all of them. We use it ourselves simply because we already own it. Some software won't run on ARM at all, such as SQL Server on Linux, which Microsoft only supports on x86 processors. A lot of older Windows and business software was built for x86 too. Switching also costs developer time to move the database and retest the application, even if hosting is cheaper afterward. And for some companies, raw throughput isn't needed in the first place.

The question to ask your developer or IT vendor

I want business owners to think about whether they're using the right choice for their deployments and their development. Could you see an increase in performance by leaving MSSQL on x86 and going to Postgres on ARM? Postgres runs on ARM and SQL Server on Linux doesn't, so making that move means changing your database as well as your hardware.

See our AI consulting services

See our software development services

Related: Why AI spending is not paying off yet

Common questions

Why do AI coding tools use TypeScript so often?

GitHub's Octoverse 2025 report found TypeScript became the most used language on GitHub in August 2025, up 66.6 percent in monthly contributors from a year earlier. GitHub attributes part of the rise to typed languages making agent-assisted coding more reliable, and to frontend frameworks starting new projects in TypeScript by default.

Does SQL Server run on ARM servers?

Microsoft's system requirements for SQL Server on Linux list the processor type as x64-compatible only. PostgreSQL's documentation lists ARM among the CPU architectures it works on, so a move to ARM servers usually means a move from SQL Server to PostgreSQL.

How much of the server market is ARM?

Mercury Research estimated ARM at 13.2 percent of server CPU shipments in Q1 2026, up from 12.5 percent in Q4 2025. TrendForce forecasts ARM above 20 percent of the server CPU market in 2026 and about 30 percent in 2027. James Williamson, Managing Principal at Blue Brick Partners, expects ARM to gain 7 to 10 percent of the market a year and plateau around 50 percent.

Sources

This article reflects the personal views of James Williamson and the views of Blue Brick Partners. It does not represent the views of any other company.

Check your stack before the next refresh

Tell us what your applications and databases run on today. We will help you weigh what moving would take.