Robinhood's Q3 2026 Earnings: Why Less Crypto Revenue Is Good for Fintech

What Robinhood reported

On October 27, 2026, Robinhood reported third quarter revenue of $1.42 billion. That was up 12 percent from a year earlier and the highest quarter in the company's history. Analysts had expected about $1.43 billion, according to Investing.com, so revenue came in just short. Diluted earnings per share fell 16 percent to $0.51. The stock closed at $94.56 that day and fell 7.36 percent to $87.60 in after-hours trading.

The miss comes down to one line. Cryptocurrency revenue fell 55 percent, from $268 million to $120 million. Options were up 31 percent, equities were up 41 percent, and event contracts were up more than six times.

Crypto is now ~1/12th of the business

A year ago, crypto was Robinhood's third-largest revenue line and brought in about 21 percent of revenue. This quarter it fell to sixth, at about 8 percent, or ~1/12th. Crypto revenue dropped by $148 million, and total revenue still grew by $150 million.

I have nothing against crypto. I just think the market still prices Robinhood like crypto drives the business. When ~1/12th of a company's revenue comes from crypto, why does the stock swing like it's a bitcoin investment? The rest of the report points somewhere else. Robinhood Gold subscribers grew 34 percent to 5.2 million. Net deposits were $15.7 billion for the quarter. Retirement assets rose 51 percent to $36.6 billion, and total platform assets rose 19 percent to $396 billion.

Where the crypto customers went

On the earnings call, CFO Shiv Verma said the main driver of the crypto revenue decline was Robinhood Earn, the company's stablecoin product, which Robinhood monetizes less than regular crypto trading.

Earn lets customers buy USDG, a stablecoin backed by dollar reserves, and lend it through an onchain lending vault run by Morpho, a third-party protocol. When I wrote this, Robinhood was quoting about 7 percent APY on it. Robinhood's own disclosure says that rate is an estimate, it can change at any time, including dropping to zero, and the assets are not covered by FDIC insurance or SIPC protection.

My read is that a lot of Robinhood's crypto customers are rotating out of volatility and choosing a dollar-based yield instead. That lowers what Robinhood earns from them this quarter. It also means those customers keep using the Robinhood app through a quiet crypto market, and Robinhood's results depend less on where bitcoin trades next month. That's a net positive for Robinhood, and for fintech as a whole.

Analyst price targets after the report

Most analysts cut their price targets after the report, and most kept their ratings. Every target in the table below is above the stock's $94.56 close on October 27.

Why I disagree with the sell-off

I think the reaction went too far. The revenue miss was small. Revenue was a record, and it landed about $6 million below the $1.43 billion estimate Investing.com cited.

The earnings miss was partly an accounting item. Net income included $67 million, or $0.07 per diluted share, of unrealized losses, mostly from marking Robinhood Ventures Fund I to market. Adjusted EPS, a new non-GAAP measure Robinhood introduced this quarter, was $0.60, above the $0.55 consensus Investing.com reported.

And by the CFO's account, the crypto drop was mainly about Earn, so those customers are still using Robinhood. Robinhood also lowered the top end of its 2026 outlook for adjusted operating expenses and stock-based compensation by $25 million, to a range of $2.675 billion to $2.75 billion.

What the Trump Accounts spending buys

Total operating expenses rose 16 percent to $739 million. Robinhood named Trump Accounts as one of the main drivers, along with credit card loss provisions and its Rothera prediction markets exchange. Verma said on the call that the company expects to invest about $100 million in Trump Accounts this year.

Robinhood is the broker and initial trustee for the program alongside BNY. In the third quarter, the U.S. Treasury launched automatic enrollment and established accounts for nearly 70 million children. Robinhood's other revenues rose 61 percent, driven in part by Trump Account service revenues. CEO Vlad Tenev called the program "a big opportunity for us to just be in front of the next generation."

From a product view, this is the part I like most. Fintech companies usually pay to win customers one at a time. This program puts tens of millions of kids in front of an investing product early, with money from their families and from donors, and those relationships can last decades. Robinhood still has to earn those customers with a good product, and Tenev said so on the call.

Prediction markets now earn more than crypto

Event contracts grew more than sixfold to $173 million and now bring in more than crypto. In my opinion prediction markets are a positive for Robinhood, although they're a real regulatory risk.

Volatility-friendly investors, the people buying naked calls or trading 0DTE options, tend to skew toward prediction markets in my opinion, because you don't get penalized the same way. Say you think a company is going to beat earnings, so you buy calls, and they do beat. Retail buyers are a small share of the dollars in the market, so market makers and big money can still sell on some figure they don't like, and the stock drops even though the company beat. You end up losing money on a call you got right. With a prediction market, if you're right that they'll beat, you get paid no matter how the market reacts to everything else in the report.

Why finance systems matter for an AI rollout

Fintech companies are building AI into their products. Robinhood says about 200 thousand customers have already opened its Agentic Trading Accounts. The same thing is happening in business finance, with AI built into payments, expense management, and bookkeeping tools.

When our clients plan for AI, we look at their finance systems early, because AI workflows depend on clean, current data. A finance team running on modern card, bill pay, and banking platforms has transaction data an AI workflow can work with right away. A team working from paper statements and manual spreadsheets has to fix that first. For more on why tools alone rarely pay off, see why AI spending is not paying off yet.

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